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« Two tales of Zen Wisdom, and, Reflections of the Warrior of the Light IX | Main | Nnamdi Azikiwe and M. L. King: As Dreamers, Doers or Builders »

May 27, 2006

How Nigeria will Collapse: Some Thoughts on the Yugoslav Model

by Kevin Ani --- A new small state is about to be born in Europe. It is less than 1 million inhabitants, 616,258 (2003) to be precise. It is called Montenegro. Indeed, with the discussions now holding in Vienna, Kosovo, a mere province of Serbia will soon be independent as well, leaving Serbia alone as the big and sore loser in a failed bid to force a state on the unwilling.

Serbia fought four wars to prevent the disintegration of Yugoslavia and lost all. Now Serbia is alone, sulking and counting its losses. How are the mighty fallen!

The decision by Montenegro to secede has driven the final nail into the coffin of Yugoslavia, the once invincible South Slav state. The World Cup in Germany this June will be the last act of the dead state. After that, Serbia and Montenegro will go their separate ways. Now instead of one Yugoslavia, we have six sovereign states, most less than 1 million in population complete with UN seats. And the high heavens have not fallen. Only in Africa is Biafra, a nation of 50 million people denied statehood.

Marshal Josip Broz TitoPhoto: Marshal Tito: Maintained the fiction of one Yugoslavia

The total collapse of Yugoslavia hold important lessons for Nigeria, a failed state, which is predicted to collapse under the weight of its internal contradictions even by its most ardent supporters. For Nigeria, the debate is no longer why but how it will collapse hence the need to take a fresh look at the Yugoslav disintegration model and draw the lessons inherent therein.


1. The historical inevitability of the Federal State of Biafra.

The state of Montenegro was abolished by the "great powers" after World War 1 just as Biafran statehood was truncated in 1970 by the armed conspiracy of the great powers - Great Britain and the now defunct Soviet Union. Just like Nigeria was forcibly amalgamated, Yugoslavia too was formed from the ruins of the Hapsburg and Ottoman empires bringing together Slovenians, Serbs, Croatians, Bosnians etc. into an unworkable union of opposites. The notion of one Yugoslavia was a farce just like the notion of one Nigeria was and is still a sham.

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The State of Biafra (Pop. 50 Million)

Flag of Biafra

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The State of Montenegro (Pop. Less than 1 million)

Flag of Montenegro

After Montenegro, the European Union (EU) and United Nations (UN) have no moral authority to oppose Biafran statehood.

2. Like Serbia, Hausa-Fulani hegemonists will lose everything.

The fiction of one Yugoslavia was maintained under Tito and his totalitarian communism. Once these props were withdrawn the rotten edifice came crashing down. Given that a modern state cannot be maintained by force in the long run, it is clear that the same centrifugal forces that led to the fall of Yugoslavia will ultimately lead to the collapse of Nigeria. The Serbs of Yugoslavia and the Hausa-Fulani share the same character trait of wanting to force a state down the throat of unwilling partners, most notably the Igbo. For this, both groups were willing to commit acts of genocide e.g. Bosnia (1994) and Biafra (1966-70). Just like the Serbs lost in Yugoslavia, the Hausa-Fulani will be the grand losers, confined to their homeland in the Sahara desert margin when Nigeria goes down the tube. In Yugoslavia, the slide started with Slovenia in 1991 and today, Serbia is alone. For Nigeria, it is only a matter of time. Serbia, the arch-custodians of Yugoslav unity today, Hausa-Fulani guardians of Nigerian "unity" tomorrow.


3. Those who make peaceful change impossible...

Prior to the collapse of Yugoslavia, every attempt to restructure the state and end Serbia domination was frustrated by the Serbs. They pinned their hope on the Yugoslav military armed to the teeth by Russia, which did not save them. In the same way every call for the restructuring of the Nigerian state has been resisted by the "Serbs" of Nigeria. Like European Serbs, they have pinned their hopes on the Nigerian military armed with foreign manufactured weapons of all shapes and descriptions bought with stolen oil money.

Just like the Serbs ignored the concerns of Croatians, Macedonians, Bosnians etc, the concerns of 50 million Igbo have been swept under the carpet and trampled on in Nigeria.

For example, after imposing Yoruba rule on Nigeria for 8 years, the Hausa-Fulani are now scheming to re-impose a degenerative Islamist hegemony on Nigeria against Igbo wishes. Borrowing a script from the Serbs and even apartheid supremacists of South Africa, the Islamists have created Igbo Bantustans called “states” complete with “governors” who depend on patronage from the Abuja, the Islamic capital who they rely on to maintain the status quo. Just like the Serbs imposed a brutish crook called Slodoban Milosevic on Yugoslavia, deeply corrupt and semi-literate thugs such as Atiku Abubakar and Ibrahim Babangida are being touted as the new rulers of Nigeria. Without doubt, and like in Yugoslavia, this gross insult will provide the much needed catalyst for the 50 million Igbo to finally rise up and secede from the Nigerian Yoke, Slovenian style, thereby also generating the domino effect that will bury the moribund state for good.

Interestingly, the European Union (EU) is overseeing this peaceful dismantling of the failed state of Yugoslavia while the UN is watching. A precedent is being set here. Biafrans must demand a referendum and like in Montenegro, if 55% say yes, then Biafra is and must a foregone conclusion, like Montenegro. Neither the UN nor the EU will have the moral authority to resist or even question the disintegration of Nigerian, a state where Islamist Shariarists are currently yoked together with Christian Biafrans in an unworkable union that has claimed more than 3 million lives since 1966. To have any credibility at all, the EU must concede that if the less than 1 million people of Montenegro can vote on a referendum about their independence, so can the 50 million Biafrans. After Montenegro, for EU and the UN to oppose Biafran independence referendum now is to deny the common humanity of black people. It is pure racial discrimination. Surely what is good for the European goose is good
for the African gander. NC

Posted by Administrator at May 27, 2006 01:47 PM

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